Controlled CivBench on Vox Populi 5.2.7, Civilization V

PerformanceA controlled version of CivBench (Chen et al., 2026). Each LLM strategists rotate through 3 standard maps (8 players), each game features 2 of the same LLM strategists + 6 Vox Populi AI players. Experimented with 2 conditions: having LLMs make a decision every turn (base); having them make a decision every 5 turns, or when an important event comes up (per-5).

Compare strategists' strength, progress, cost, and token use, with coverage checks to show which experiments support the results.

Usage, cost, and skillCompares cost and token use per player per game with skill, and measures Elo above or below the fitted usage-skill curve. Module: performance.usage_efficiency currency: usd; log_x: True; ratings_stage: bt_main; dropped_baselines: 1; unpriced_identities: 0; unrated_identities: 0; cost_basis: per player per complete game; cached_input_estimated: True; efficiency_metric: elo - expected_elo; usage_skill_equation: expected_elo = intercept + slope * log10(average_usage); usage_skill_fits: {'cost': {'intercept': 1441.9160969832785, 'slope': 70.82723827641072, 'n': 30, 'r_squared': 0.4018791576026215}, 'input': {'intercept': 929.1500568077244, 'slope': 78.62554613635585, 'n': 30, 'r_squared': 0.03811646766643484}, 'output': {'intercept': 1221.2790332535012, 'slope': 43.50647797457705, 'n': 30, 'r_squared': 0.10198755780836999}}; baseline_elo: 1500.0; baseline_name: Vanilla; null_baseline_elo: 1311.604036752814

Most cost-efficient: GLM-5.3-Simple-Per-5 (+99 Elo vs the fitted curve). Least cost-efficient: Qwen-3.6-27B-Simple-Per-5 (-116 Elo vs the fitted curve).

perf_usage_efficiency: usage_vs_rating
Downloads and supporting files (5)

Win-probability trendsShows how each player identity's predicted chance of winning changes from the opening turns through the end of the game. Module: performance.turn_predicted estimator: attention; strength_table: strength; by: player_type; aggregate: mean; games: 770; baseline_experiment: vanilla-standard-fixed

Highest mean predicted win probability from attention: GLM-5.3-Simple | Per-5 at 17.7%. Means range from 6.2% to 17.7%.

Relative

Strategists

Adjusted strength over the game, the scale the ratings use. Each point is the rating a run would get if the game ended there: its victory probability averaged up to that point the way the rating averages it, compared with the mean VPAI self-play value on the same map and seat, so 0.5 means level with VPAI from the same start. A strategist can sit above 0.5 here with a low absolute probability when it drew hard seats. Only controlled games count, and winner enforcement is off so the final outcome does not lift a whole curve. Checkbox choices apply to both views.

Absolute

Strategists

Each curve is the mean of every run's interpolated victory probability on the fixed 0 to 1 progress grid, pooled over all games. Probabilities are averaged linearly to compare with their expectations (12.5% in 8-player games, for example). The VPAI reference curve is drawn thicker when present. The vertical axis fits the visible curves. Only VPAI and the best and worst strategists by mean curve value start checked; All and Best and worst switch the selection. Hover a checkbox to preview or highlight that strategist's curves, or a legend entry to highlight its curve. Hover the chart to compare every visible curve at one progress point.

Downloads and supporting files (3)

Experiment coverageReports completed, missing, and repeated games across the planned map, seat, and condition combinations, including decision-turn failures. Module: performance.experiment_completeness strength_table: strength; coverage: {'missing_slots': 78, 'repeated_slots': 3, 'failed_decision_turns': 1001, 'excluded_games': 1, 'experiments_with_warnings': 24}; seating: {'files_generated': 5, 'open_cells': 78, 'warnings': []}

813/888 planned games (91.6%) are present across 37 experiment(s). 32/37 experiment(s) have every planned game.

experiment_completeness

experiment required_games present_games missing_games completeness_pct repeated_slots excluded_games failed_turn_count avg_failure_count failure_pct warning
claude-opus-5.5-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 1 0.0208 0.0001 1 failed decision turn(s)
claude-sonnet-5.5-standard-fixed-per-5 24 1 23 0.0417 0 0 0 0 0 23 missing slot(s); cell repeat counts differ from expected 8
deepseek-v4-flash-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 1 0.0208 0.0001 1 failed decision turn(s)
deepseek-v4-flash-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
deepseek-v4.1-flash-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
gemma-4-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 1 0.0208 0.0001 1 failed decision turn(s)
gemma-4-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 25 0.5208 0.0013 25 failed decision turn(s)
glm-5.1-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 1 0.0208 0.0001 1 failed decision turn(s)
glm-5.2-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 60 1.25 0.0033 60 failed decision turn(s)
glm-5.2-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 8 0.1667 0.0005 8 failed decision turn(s)
glm-5.3-flash-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 1 824 16.48 0.0437 1 game(s) excluded by decision failure cutoff; 824 failed decision turn(s)
glm-5.3-flash-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
glm-5.3-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 1 0.0208 0.0001 1 failed decision turn(s)
gpt-6-astra-standard-fixed-per-5 24 8 16 0.3333 0 0 0 0 0 16 missing slot(s); cell repeat counts differ from expected 8
gpt-6-luna-standard-fixed 24 18 7 0.7083 1 0 1 0.0278 0.0001 7 missing slot(s); 1 repeated slot(s); cell repeat counts differ from expected 8; 1 failed decision turn(s)
gpt-6-luna-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 10 0.2083 0.0005 10 failed decision turn(s)
gpt-6.1-sol-standard-fixed-per-5 24 4 20 0.1667 0 0 0 0 0 20 missing slot(s); cell repeat counts differ from expected 8
kimi-k2.6-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 5 0.1042 0.0003 5 failed decision turn(s)
kimi-k2.7-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
kimi-k2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 9 0.1875 0.0005 9 failed decision turn(s)
minimax-m2.7-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
minimax-m2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 3 0.0625 0.0002 3 failed decision turn(s)
minimax-m3-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
nemotron-3-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
nemotron-3-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
null-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 decision-turn failure telemetry unavailable
oss-120b-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 35 0.7292 0.0019 35 failed decision turn(s)
oss-120b-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 4 0.0833 0.0002 4 failed decision turn(s)
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 4 0.0833 0.0002 4 failed decision turn(s)
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 7 0.1458 0.0004 7 failed decision turn(s)
qwen-3.6-27b-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
qwen-3.6-27b-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
qwen-3.8-27b-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
qwen-3.8-27b-standard-fixed-per-5 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok
qwen-3.8-flash-next-standard-fixed 24 12 12 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 12 missing slot(s); cell repeat counts differ from expected 8
qwen-3.8-flash-next-standard-fixed-per-5 24 26 0 1 2 0 1 0.0192 0 2 repeated slot(s); cell repeat counts differ from expected 8; 1 failed decision turn(s)
vanilla-standard-fixed 24 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ok

full CSV

decision_turn_failures

experiment game_id player_id player_type valid_turn_count failed_turn_count failure_pct failed_turns excluded_game
claude-opus-5.5-standard-fixed-per-5 d9c10933-49a0-4024-9dda-6ac9a13f8251 6 Opus-5.5-Simple-Per-5 431 1 0.0023 430 False
deepseek-v4-flash-standard-fixed 06e0af08-c8e1-4d29-85de-86905fa60bba 4 DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Simple 378 1 0.0026 2 False
gemma-4-standard-fixed 62b7fc17-8534-42cf-86e8-9f7203bc6e31 0 Gemma-4-Simple 333 1 0.003 0 False
gemma-4-standard-fixed-per-5 49edb947-f249-4166-9cd5-8e275d03d48e 7 Gemma-4-Simple-Per-5 471 8 0.017 385,386,387,388,389,390,391,392 False
gemma-4-standard-fixed-per-5 610e1ec5-92ff-4bf7-be11-418ac59f2380 7 Gemma-4-Simple-Per-5 434 5 0.0115 420,421,422,432,433 False
gemma-4-standard-fixed-per-5 7d0bcb57-5c0d-45bd-acd6-807d36a3b427 6 Gemma-4-Simple-Per-5 343 5 0.0146 253,254,255,256,328 False
gemma-4-standard-fixed-per-5 8a02a64e-b1ce-48c5-9285-222c4c6d43a6 2 Gemma-4-Simple-Per-5 447 1 0.0022 446 False
gemma-4-standard-fixed-per-5 d6267277-576e-438b-9ca9-d93bb2ffe62a 5 Gemma-4-Simple-Per-5 399 6 0.015 335,336,352,353,354,355 False
glm-5.1-standard-fixed e69a74ca-72b1-4cd8-a76b-4383dbaaef99 6 GLM-5.1-Simple 359 1 0.0028 2 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed 47bafccf-9175-4248-bffc-d7f6ba1df012 1 GLM-5.2-Simple 340 11 0.0324 283,284,285,286,287,288,289,290,291,292,293 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed 47bafccf-9175-4248-bffc-d7f6ba1df012 7 GLM-5.2-Simple 335 9 0.0269 284,285,286,287,288,289,290,291,292 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed 514e26cf-beb1-4dc3-8ddc-a3896e31f6fa 0 GLM-5.2-Simple 405 8 0.0198 337,338,339,340,341,342,343,344 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed 514e26cf-beb1-4dc3-8ddc-a3896e31f6fa 3 GLM-5.2-Simple 458 8 0.0175 336,337,338,339,340,341,342,343 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed 613aa40f-578f-48aa-9f1a-f466b89cc58a 0 GLM-5.2-Simple 290 3 0.0103 0,1,2 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed 613aa40f-578f-48aa-9f1a-f466b89cc58a 6 GLM-5.2-Simple 405 3 0.0074 0,1,2 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed efbed03d-88a6-4bc2-b3d9-b9c59cc5d0c1 0 GLM-5.2-Simple 376 8 0.0213 349,350,351,352,353,354,355,356 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed efbed03d-88a6-4bc2-b3d9-b9c59cc5d0c1 3 GLM-5.2-Simple 375 10 0.0267 347,348,349,350,351,352,353,354,355,356 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed-per-5 8deaeceb-3ff5-40d4-b579-49774ab5abdc 5 GLM-5.2-Simple-Per-5 216 1 0.0046 210 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed-per-5 b6875d19-f75d-4b64-ba01-0d527bef43e1 1 GLM-5.2-Simple-Per-5 495 2 0.004 126,128 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed-per-5 b6875d19-f75d-4b64-ba01-0d527bef43e1 4 GLM-5.2-Simple-Per-5 246 1 0.0041 128 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed-per-5 d028b800-27d2-4df4-a585-d1837edcb31a 2 GLM-5.2-Simple-Per-5 221 2 0.009 134,135 False
glm-5.2-standard-fixed-per-5 d028b800-27d2-4df4-a585-d1837edcb31a 3 GLM-5.2-Simple-Per-5 398 2 0.005 133,134 False
glm-5.3-flash-standard-fixed 60e6ccca-a986-4946-ba49-dc511a93eca7 1 VPAI 412 412 1 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111,112,113,114,115,116,117,118,119,120,121,122,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140,141,142,143,144,145,146,147,148,149,150,151,152,153,154,155,156,157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164,165,166,167,168,169,170,171,172,173,174,175,176,177,178,179,180,181,182,183,184,185,186,187,188,189,190,191,192,193,194,195,196,197,198,199,200,201,202,203,204,205,206,207,208,209,210,211,212,213,214,215,216,217,218,219,220,221,222,223,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,233,234,235,236,237,238,239,240,241,242,243,244,245,246,247,248,249,250,251,252,253,254,255,256,257,258,259,260,261,262,263,264,265,266,267,268,269,270,271,272,273,274,275,276,277,278,279,280,281,282,283,284,285,286,287,288,289,290,291,292,293,294,295,296,297,298,299,300,301,302,303,304,305,306,307,308,309,310,311,312,313,314,315,316,317,318,319,320,321,322,323,324,325,326,327,328,329,330,331,332,333,334,335,336,337,338,339,340,341,342,343,344,345,346,347,348,349,350,351,352,353,354,355,356,357,358,359,360,361,362,363,364,365,366,367,368,369,370,371,372,373,374,375,376,377,378,379,380,381,382,383,384,385,386,387,388,389,390,391,392,393,394,395,396,397,398,399,400,401,402,403,404,405,406,407,408,409,410,411 True
glm-5.3-flash-standard-fixed 60e6ccca-a986-4946-ba49-dc511a93eca7 7 VPAI 412 412 1 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111,112,113,114,115,116,117,118,119,120,121,122,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140,141,142,143,144,145,146,147,148,149,150,151,152,153,154,155,156,157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164,165,166,167,168,169,170,171,172,173,174,175,176,177,178,179,180,181,182,183,184,185,186,187,188,189,190,191,192,193,194,195,196,197,198,199,200,201,202,203,204,205,206,207,208,209,210,211,212,213,214,215,216,217,218,219,220,221,222,223,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,233,234,235,236,237,238,239,240,241,242,243,244,245,246,247,248,249,250,251,252,253,254,255,256,257,258,259,260,261,262,263,264,265,266,267,268,269,270,271,272,273,274,275,276,277,278,279,280,281,282,283,284,285,286,287,288,289,290,291,292,293,294,295,296,297,298,299,300,301,302,303,304,305,306,307,308,309,310,311,312,313,314,315,316,317,318,319,320,321,322,323,324,325,326,327,328,329,330,331,332,333,334,335,336,337,338,339,340,341,342,343,344,345,346,347,348,349,350,351,352,353,354,355,356,357,358,359,360,361,362,363,364,365,366,367,368,369,370,371,372,373,374,375,376,377,378,379,380,381,382,383,384,385,386,387,388,389,390,391,392,393,394,395,396,397,398,399,400,401,402,403,404,405,406,407,408,409,410,411 True
glm-5.3-standard-fixed-per-5 5d31984a-9921-4529-a71a-2e943dd0747d 0 GLM-5.3-Simple-Per-5 332 1 0.003 293 False
gpt-6-luna-standard-fixed 2c5b664b-18c5-4033-8900-9c1166a7c627 7 GPT-6-Luna-Simple 418 1 0.0024 417 False
gpt-6-luna-standard-fixed-per-5 0632c8cf-46de-4e81-9280-191adbd86095 3 GPT-6-Luna-Simple-Per-5 492 1 0.002 416 False
gpt-6-luna-standard-fixed-per-5 ed013f54-bfea-4abc-8ac3-1e687e234343 1 GPT-6-Luna-Simple-Per-5 496 9 0.0181 462,464,468,479,480,484,491,493,494 False
kimi-k2.6-standard-fixed 282c1bf0-8d2a-4c85-b1ae-d57ad2579ab7 0 Kimi-K2.6-Simple 297 2 0.0067 0,263 False
kimi-k2.6-standard-fixed 375f9a58-250d-4f21-86e2-637d0b2ca0f1 3 Kimi-K2.6-Simple 415 2 0.0048 249,267 False
kimi-k2.6-standard-fixed c0ac65c1-2231-4d0c-9b82-f8735af18c2b 1 Kimi-K2.6-Simple 389 1 0.0026 225 False
kimi-k2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 079be89c-786a-4241-a476-43f25b56a767 4 Kimi-K2.7-Simple-Per-5 403 2 0.005 271,273 False
kimi-k2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 2539b221-ce2e-461e-9b1d-6c792becfc09 6 Kimi-K2.7-Simple-Per-5 349 2 0.0057 109,110 False
kimi-k2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 2539b221-ce2e-461e-9b1d-6c792becfc09 7 Kimi-K2.7-Simple-Per-5 343 2 0.0058 109,110 False
kimi-k2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 7d16f2d7-c8dc-4a74-acdd-3cae1ffcf978 6 Kimi-K2.7-Simple-Per-5 447 2 0.0045 322,323 False
kimi-k2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 7d16f2d7-c8dc-4a74-acdd-3cae1ffcf978 7 Kimi-K2.7-Simple-Per-5 447 1 0.0022 323 False
minimax-m2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 486c63e5-3e46-4369-bf6b-67721296d31c 2 MiniMax-M2.7-Simple-Per-5 211 1 0.0047 102 False
minimax-m2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 900c9eba-602a-43a7-a474-6a08a64a162e 2 MiniMax-M2.7-Simple-Per-5 333 1 0.003 194 False
minimax-m2.7-standard-fixed-per-5 900c9eba-602a-43a7-a474-6a08a64a162e 5 MiniMax-M2.7-Simple-Per-5 365 1 0.0027 193 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed 086b973d-c994-43b3-a53f-f592d1b05c3a 6 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple 477 1 0.0021 408 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed 2ce17cde-2a99-4d6b-a25b-ef45c1e259eb 5 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple 463 1 0.0022 86 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed a960d71e-992a-48e5-9665-055737c7cd5e 1 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple 445 10 0.0225 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,171,172,174 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed a960d71e-992a-48e5-9665-055737c7cd5e 7 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple 438 9 0.0205 0,1,2,3,4,171,173,174,175 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed aa20feb7-51b2-4460-9dad-e35551dfedfc 0 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple 439 5 0.0114 106,108,109,114,115 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed aa20feb7-51b2-4460-9dad-e35551dfedfc 6 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple 442 9 0.0204 106,108,109,110,111,112,113,114,115 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed-per-5 02abfd3b-46b7-4282-b74a-2e39c2000eb5 3 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple-Per-5 393 2 0.0051 33,37 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed-per-5 03250086-89ee-4ca7-837a-4c3e0b1df300 2 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple-Per-5 465 1 0.0022 274 False
oss-120b-standard-fixed-per-5 418730dd-5a04-45ba-a6f2-f2b52f44cd13 2 GPT-OSS-120B-Simple-Per-5 418 1 0.0024 255 False
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed 552f3e20-debf-445e-80a1-518fa80b921b 1 Qwen-3.5-Simple 499 4 0.008 480,481,485,492 False
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed-per-5 3b547f7f-651f-4c0f-8586-a9220145fae6 6 Qwen-3.5-Simple-Per-5 369 1 0.0027 0 False
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed-per-5 3b547f7f-651f-4c0f-8586-a9220145fae6 7 Qwen-3.5-Simple-Per-5 366 1 0.0027 0 False
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed-per-5 b4dc1a8b-b26d-4ffc-ac3b-108bd2e29d74 4 Qwen-3.5-Simple-Per-5 236 2 0.0085 134,135 False
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed-per-5 b4dc1a8b-b26d-4ffc-ac3b-108bd2e29d74 5 Qwen-3.5-Simple-Per-5 387 2 0.0052 133,134 False
qwen-3.5-standard-fixed-per-5 d5a52cd0-adc7-420a-b5e5-de608da25bcb 5 Qwen-3.5-Simple-Per-5 332 1 0.003 175 False
qwen-3.8-flash-next-standard-fixed-per-5 e006cda2-af24-49b4-ab98-8c8e501e4872 1 Qwen-3.8-Flash-Next-Simple-Per-5 414 1 0.0024 179 False

full CSV

Downloads and supporting files (10)